Forecasting quantiles of day-ahead electricity load

NCER Working Paper Series Forecasting day-ahead electricity load using a multiple equation time series approach

The quality of short-term electricity load forecasting is crucial to the operation and trading activities of market participants in an electricity market. In this paper, it is shown that a multiple equation time-series model, which is estimated by repeated application of ordinary least squares, has the potential to match or even outperform more complex nonlinear and nonparametric forecasting mo...

Forecasting day-ahead electricity load using a multiple equation time series approach

The quality of short-term electricity load forecasting is crucial to the operations and trading activities of market participants in an electricity market. In this paper, a multiple equation time series model for intra-day and day-ahead load forecasting is built. The model uses lagged load and temperature as the primary explanatory variables but makes effective use of diurnal characteristics an...

Forecasting day ahead electricity price using ARMA methods

Day-ahead Price Forecasting of Electricity Markets by a New Hybrid Forecast Method

Energy price forecast is the key information for generating companies to prepare their bids in the electricity markets. However, this forecasting problem is complex due to nonlinear, non-stationary, and time variant behavior of electricity price time series. Accordingly, in this paper a new strategy is proposed for electricity price forecast. The forecast strategy includes Wavelet Transform (WT...

Application of a New Hybrid Method for Day-Ahead Energy Price Forecasting in Iranian Electricity Market

Abstract- In a typical competitive electricity market, a large number of short-term and long-term contracts are set on basis of energy price by an Independent System Operator (ISO). Under such circumstances, accurate electricity price forecasting can play a significant role in improving the more reasonable bidding strategies adopted by the electricity market participants. So, they cannot only r...